Global Business Insolvencies 2026: Atradius Raises Forecast by 3%

Key Takeaways

The industry faces an anticipated 3% increase in global business insolvencies in 2026 according to Atradius. This figure is 6 points higher than the October 2025 forecast. Covid-related debts, rising input costs, and ongoing trade tensions are key contributors to this heightened risk (Le Moci, April 15, 2026).

Highlights

• Atradius has revised its global insolvency forecast upward to +3% for 2026 (Le Moci, 2026)
• Environment marked by post-Covid debt, increased production cost inflation, and rising commercial pressures
• The profession must secure financial flows: monitor client risks, adapt export credit cover, and implement prudent management

Background and Key Issues

The sector operates in a deteriorated economic context. According to Reuters, the global economy is showing mounting signs of slowdown, with growing geopolitical uncertainty and persistent logistical disruptions (Reuters, 2026). In the United States, the likelihood of recession is put at 30% according to Polymarket, with $1.3 million wagered on a short-term downturn (Forbes, April 14, 2026). Escalating trade tensions and rising logistics costs are complicating export risk management. Industry players identify lengthening payment terms, tighter bank lending conditions, and order volatility as the main threats this year (Le Moci, 2026; WWD, 2026).

Impact on the Profession

The forecasted increase in insolvencies raises risk for exporters, freight forwarders, and customs brokers. The industry must strengthen receivables monitoring and adjust buyer selection processes. A reassessment of trade credit insurance programs is necessary, alongside an update of contractual clauses relating to payment terms and conditions. Freight forwarders and customs brokers should anticipate delayed payments and adapt their financial guarantees. Compliance officers are monitoring new regulatory risks and heightened exposure to high-default-risk markets.

Next Steps

Industry participants should keep a close eye on updates from Atradius and other trade credit insurers in H2 2026 to adapt their coverage mechanisms. Initial quarterly trends will be crucial for recalibrating client risk management strategies. Sector analysis and prioritization of critical cases should be intensified as soon as half-year results are published. Ongoing monitoring of public support measures, including at the European level, remains prudent—particularly for export-intensive sectors.

Atradius anticipe +3 % de défaillances mondiales en 2026, avec un pic de tension dès le second semestre. (Atradius anticipates a 3% increase in global insolvencies in 2026, with a peak in tensions from the second half of the year.)

Source: Le Moci, 15/04/2026; Reuters, 2026; Forbes, 14/04/2026